A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has has something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
