A mere eight weeks in the past that the Villa attacker was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered as his coach berated him over failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. Back then, as Villa went six without a win, it wasn't clear if his displays were a sign or the reason for the team's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, though, the manager's outburst was decidedly more positive. After the England international drilled in his second to restore his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician ripped off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The team were on their way to a tenth straight victory and after failing to win any of their first six fixtures, find themselves a mere three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Challengers?
That’s an exceptionally difficult query to answer. Past precedent, the traditional standing of Villa, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they've rarely been entirely convincing during this run, even as the wins have accumulated.
According to the data, on just two occasions has the side had an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a club who have put together 10 in a row, Villa appear weirdly vulnerable – yet right now the margins are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach appears to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent before hoping their talisman to bail them out with a couple of precise efforts. This occurred against Leeds, it occurred in London, and it happened versus Manchester United.
His opener originated from a superb shot, arced right inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of the opener capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, Manchester United managed more shots and more shots on target. They have secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival they have to face as the season progresses. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot maintain thrashing the football into the net's top corner forever.
Potential for Growth
Could it be another reality whereby, instead of luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players might still return to peak condition.
- The main striker might resume finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent might become the performer he showed during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually come back from the treatment room, bolstering a sometimes shaky defence.
This could contain the seeds of a title challenge, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Savoring the Moment
However, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable the team would be in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt earlier this season, nobody thought Rogers by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a title charge while looking like an essential Three Lions star.
The current run should be enjoyed exactly since it appears so improbable. As the match-winner positioned himself before the North End at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he seemed to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. Such periods are rare in football and must be appreciated.
