Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from US leadership follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame certain parties of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington functions according to a assumption familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require sustained allied backing.
